Introduction: The Bitcoin Rollercoaster

So, here we are again, biting our nails as Bitcoin’s price does the cha-cha slide downwards. With the digital gold showing some serious downward momentum, everyone’s asking: Have we hit rock bottom yet? Spoiler alert: According to on-chain data, it looks like we’re still plummeting!

The Mystery of the Bitcoin Price Bottom

Finding the bottom of Bitcoin’s price is like trying to find the last slice of pizza at a party: Everyone wants it, but no one can seem to grab it. In this ongoing circus we call the market cycle, people are looking to on-chain metrics for answers. Spoiler alert 2.0: The signs are pointing toward more uncertainty!

Key Metrics in the Spotlight

Alphractal, our data-savvy sidekick, has gone through the numbers and revealed that the BTC market feels like it’s got a slow leak. They focused on two juicy metrics—Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and the Delta Growth Rate of BTC (a fancy way of looking at market cap vs. realized cap). These metrics are flashing a big, bright “Not Yet!” when it comes to confirming a bottom.

The Current State of Affairs

As captured in the recent charts, NUPL has taken a nosedive, suggesting investors are feeling the squeeze as unrealized gains start shrinking. But hold on, folks! It’s still in positive territory, which indicates many are still swimming in profits—cue the champagne!

What Happens Next?

Now, here’s where it gets really fun (or scary, depending on your perspective). Historically, the true bottom only shows up when the NUPL flips negative. That’s when things get spicy! Meanwhile, the BTC Delta Growth Rate is flickering negative, hinting that the speculative thrill ride might be over and we’re stepping into accumulation territory—yawn, right?

Bitcoin’s Price Action: Below $90K!

After a bit of a downer last weekend, Bitcoin is now sub-$90,000. Oof! Swissblock, the investment gurus, reckon that this new price bop reinforces the overall “Uh-oh!” vibe in the market. Losing that $89,200 support level feels like shoving a dagwood sandwich into a blender—chaotic!

Keeping an Eye on Support Levels

However, Bitcoin bulls are still throwing a party at the $84,500 mark, hanging on grimly like it’s the last lifebuoy on a sinking ship. Swissblock has conjured up two scenarios that could unfold in a snap.

The Bullish Dream

In a fairytale twist, if that $84,500 support holds, we could see a fun liquidity sweep—fingers crossed! And if the Risk Index takes a chill pill, we might see some bullish long positions pop up like a jack-in-the-box. Hooray!

The Bearish Reality

But wait! In a classic twist of fate, if Bitcoin crumbles below $84,500 and starts consolidating, we’re likely to see more frowny faces as prices dip again, aiming for fresh lows that might land us around $74,000. Yikes!

Conclusion: Buckle Up!

So strap yourself in, folks! The wild Bitcoin ride is far from over, and whether we’re at the bottom or not is still up for debate. Keep your eyes peeled, your fingers crossed, and let’s hope for a brighter, bullish tomorrow!