October was wild. The price… not so much

Solana just had the kind of month that makes charts blush. In October, it rolled out a brand-new consensus engine, started churning out blocks about twice as fast, saw a surge of tokenized assets, and pulled in more Wall Street-style and payments-related partners.

So yeah—lots of “fundamentals at all-time highs” energy. The weird part? SOL hasn’t really reflected that yet.

Right now, SOL is trading around $89.25 after the broader market dumped on pretty much every risk asset this week, dragging it under the $90 line. Normally, when a blockchain upgrades this hard, the market eventually plays catch-up once things calm down… and the chart might be giving an early wink.

What actually changed under the hood

Solana’s October looked like a highlight reel. The Solana Foundation described it as records across network speed, tokenized assets, payments, and institutional access.

One major upgrade tweak that matters: Alpenglow changes how validators cast votes. Instead of posting votes as on-chain transactions, votes aren’t taking up that same kind of block space. Since votes were roughly 63% of Solana transactions, a lot of “transaction-count” dashboards could drop sharply—without meaning usage is suddenly weaker. It’s more like the measuring cup got swapped, not that people stopped showing up.

Why the market didn’t price it in yet

The timing wasn’t perfect. Those upgrades landed right when macro pressure started hitting risk assets across the board. In other words, Solana was busy leveling up… while the entire market was busy panic-selling. That combo usually means the good news doesn’t get properly priced right away.

Then the pressure kept rolling in. Midterm election fallout plus an AI-driven tech sell-off battered risk sentiment hard. Bitcoin slid back toward its critical $76,000 level, and altcoins basically followed it off the cliff. Classic.

On top of that, institutional demand cooled down. Spot Solana ETF activity reportedly saw no net inflows for 12 straight trading sessions, with outflows showing up strongly on Nov. 6. That’s a pretty sharp contrast to earlier this year, when Solana ETF inflows were absolutely flying.

The chart isn’t thrilled… but it’s getting interesting

Even though the Solana price keeps making lower lows, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has started to climb. And that’s the part traders pay attention to.

This is what people call bullish divergence: price is sliding, but momentum (RSI) is improving. Translation: selling pressure may be weakening even as SOL continues to drift lower. This kind of pattern often shows up near the tail end of a correction, when sellers are running out of steam.

One thing bulls will want to see next is SOL reclaiming its short-term moving averages. If that happens along with a calmer macro backdrop, October’s “record-setting” upgrades could finally start showing up in the price.

Key levels bulls and bears are watching

Let’s talk numbers, because crypto loves drama and math.

First test: getting SOL back above and holding around $90. It slipped below that level this week, so turning it into support would be the first meaningful confirmation that the divergence is doing its job.

Next hurdle: the $95 area.

The big boss fight: $100. A clean break above $100 would help undo the pattern of lower highs and put October’s highs back on the radar.

Downside watch: $86 is the nearest support. If SOL breaks below there, it could open the door toward $80—a level where buyers previously stepped in during an earlier dip below $80.

The real catalyst: ETF flows

If there’s a single thing to keep an eye on, it’s ETF flows. A return to steady inflows could bring back the institutional “bid” that SOL has been missing. That might also help the market finally start pricing in the upgrades from October instead of treating them like background noise.

So… what happens next?

Is Solana’s record October about to finally show up on the chart? And could SOL reclaim $100 before the year’s end?

Your guess is as good as mine—but the RSI is at least hinting that the selling spell might be fading.