Is the Whale Party Over?

So, the New Year kicked off with Bitcoin strutting its stuff and peeking above the $90,000 mark on January 2nd. But before you grab your party hat and start celebrating, there’s some chatter from the crypto corner that might burst your bubble: CryptoQuant’s head honcho, Julio Moreno, claims the whale squad isn’t back swimming in the BTC waters just yet.

What’s the Buzz?

Julio took to X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, to lay down the facts based on some pretty intriguing charts. The one that caught my eye is the Total Whale Holdings and Monthly % Change chart, which shows how the big fish – those with over 1,000 Bitcoins – have been swimming (or not) lately.

Charting the Course

Now, let’s talk dolphins – not the adorable marine mammals, but the investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. Moreno pointed out that the data looks a bit off because it doesn’t include exchange wallet addresses. So, when exchanges shuffle their holdings into fewer wallets with fatter balances, it skews the whale picture. Just because the whales seem to be in a reaccumulation phase doesn’t mean they’re ready to throw a party.

The Shrinking Whale Narrative

When we take out the exchange addresses from the equation, a different story unfolds: Bitcoin whale balances are actually on the decline! Yep, you heard that right. The data suggests that these underwater giants are experiencing waning demand. Less demand can only mean one thing – a potential bear market might be lurking just around the corner.

What’s the Price Drama?

As of now, Bitcoin’s strutting at about $90,320, which is a nifty little over 2% rise in the last 24 hours. But history has shown us that lack of demand may just mean a price correction is on its way.

ETF: The Crystal Ball of Crypto

Now, let’s dive into the US Bitcoin ETF waters. This marketplace gives us some clues about investor demand in the cryptocurrency world. Unfortunately, recent reports haven’t painted a pretty picture. The infamous BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, known as IBIT, saw around $244 million in net outflows last week. This marks its second week of withdrawals in a row, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

Outflows Galore

Over the past ten weeks, IBIT has witnessed net withdrawals eight times! Talk about buyer’s remorse! Overall, crypto funds reported a staggering $446 million in net outflows last week, marking the sixth withdrawal in the last nine weeks. It seems like everyone’s suddenly decided that maybe HODLing isn’t the best idea after all.