Bitcoin on the Rise!

Hold onto your hats, folks! Bitcoin has taken a joyride, climbing approximately 4% in just the last 24 hours and is now dancing around the strikingly close figure of $110,000. Short-term investment ninjas are eyeing a breakthrough above $112,200 for any sign of renewed muscle, while long-term hodlers are simply basking in profits like they just found a hidden treasure chest.

Global Drama Impacts Crypto

Rumor has it that the easing of US-China tensions could give risk assets, like our beloved Bitcoin, a nice little boost in the near future. So, not only is the crypto world affected by price charts, but it’s also doing a little geopolitical tango!

Beware the Business Cycle!

Now, here’s where it gets juicy! Analyst Willy Woo chimes in, warning that the next crypto bear market might not play by the usual rules and could instead be driven by a classic “business cycle” slump. Who saw that coming? He believes that Bitcoin’s fate could intertwined with the compounding effects of this economic rollercoaster rather than just the regular crypto ups and downs.

The Overlapping Cycles

Willy Woo pointed out that so far, we’ve had two cycles waltzing together: the four-year Bitcoin halving rhythm mingling with the swings in the M2 money supply. But now? It seems we’ve only got one lonely cycle left to oversee things. He predicts that the next bear market will be defined by a cycle that people tend to overlook: the business cycle. You know, the kind that knocked the wind out of markets back in 2001 and 2008—before Bitcoin even graced us with its presence!

Past Crashes & Bitcoin’s Test

Let’s take a moment to remember the dot-com bubble burst in 2001, when US stocks meandered down by around 50% over two years. And don’t forget the 2008 financial crisis when the S&P 500 took a dive of approximately 56%! Those scenarios happened before crypto emerged like a phoenix, which is a big reason why Woo argues that Bitcoin hasn’t faced a real stress test during a full-on recession.

Data Doesn’t Hint at Doom (Yet)

The National Bureau of Economic Research is keeping a very close eye on employment, personal income, industrial production, and retail sales in their quest to identify recessions. As of now, there’s no solid indication that a colossal downturn is just around the corner, though certain risks are lurking, waiting to pounce.

The Ebb & Flow of Trade Tariffs

Trade tariffs have been more like annoying traffic jams affecting growth early in 2025, and experts believe they’ll continue putting the squeeze on GDP into 2026. Slower growth is like a sponge soaking up liquidity and exerting pressure on markets.

Bitcoin’s Support Zone

Bitcoin is making headlines by reclaiming the support range of $109,000 to $110,000, but the game isn’t over yet. The next big hurdle? A triumphant leap past $112,000, which could usher in a whole new wave of buyers. With US-China trade tensions mellowing out, there’s a growing optimism that BTC could rally even further from this place!

The Real Test Awaits

According to analyst Ted Pillows, Bitcoin has recuperated nicely between $109,000 and $110,000. He eyes that all-important $112,000 resistance like a hawk. If Bitcoin can effortlessly breach that barrier, we might be seeing a flurry of new buyers coming into play. But watch out! If we encounter a liquidity crunch due to another overarching recession, Bitcoin may end up dancing to a different beat, mimicking tech stocks from past downturns instead of glimmering like gold.

Investor Behavior Under Pressure

Willy Woo summed it up perfectly: the real test for Bitcoin will arrive when cash starts getting tight. Picture this: investors faced with tough choices about where to allocate their money. Will they still see Bitcoin as a safe haven, or will they treat it as a risky bet? This questioning will likely sculpt future institutional behavior and reshape market dynamics.

So, grab your popcorn, folks, the show is just getting started!