What’s Happening with Bitcoin’s Hashrate?

So, guess what? Bitcoin’s hashrate just took a little dive, dropping around 4% over the month leading to December 15. Analysts at VanEck are raising their eyebrows over this because historically, such declines tend to precede price hikes. Yes, really!

The Numbers Game

According to our favorite number crunchers, Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush from VanEck, when the hashrate takes a dip, Bitcoin’s prices are likely to perk up 65% of the time in the following 90 days. That’s a pretty sweet deal compared to the mere 54% chance of good things happening when the hashrate is, you know, thriving. It’s like a game of chance, but one that leans more in your favor when things get tough!

Long-Term Outlook

If history has taught us anything, it’s that long-term trends can be a miner’s best friend. When the hashrate stays low for a while, the allure of a price spike increases. In fact, negative growth in hashrate over a 90-day period has been known to lead to a whopping 77% chance of a nice positive return in the subsequent 180 days. Talk about a silver lining!

Electricity Prices and Miner Economics

Now, let’s talk about those miner economics. The break-even electricity price for mining on a shiny new 2022 Bitmain S19 XP has dropped like it’s hot—from $0.12 per kWh in December 2024 to just $0.077 in mid-December 2025. Hello, saving money! This has led some miners to rethink their entire setup. Can you imagine crunching numbers on your mining rig while sipping a cup of coffee?

Capacity on the Move

Some mining capacity is packing its bags and leaving the network. VanEck suggests that the recent 4% dip in hashrate ties to about 1.3 gigawatts of mining power taking an extended vacation (aka shutting down) in China. And hold onto your hats, but there’s talk that a growing demand for AI compute power could siphon off about 10% of Bitcoin’s hashrate—hello competition! So, expect mining operations to shift to those cozy spots where energy and regulations play nice!

Global Support for Bitcoin Mining

Despite some closures, not all hope is lost! Around 13 countries are still cheering for Bitcoin mining, including heavyweights like Russia, Japan, and even El Salvador. Go team Bitcoin!

Bitcoin Price Status

As of now, Bitcoin is lounging around $88,600, which is a stark 30% drop from its jaw-dropping all-time high of $126,080 hit back on October 6. With year-end markets being quieter than a library, things may look a bit sluggish, but thin liquidity can sometimes hide a good old-fashioned price bump!

An Eye on Other Investments

Bitcoin has been hanging around the $89,000 mark lately while traders mull over supply and demand like it’s the hottest gossip in Cryptoville. Meanwhile, gold has glimmered past $4,400/oz, and silver has made folks blink at $69.44/oz—some investors think this aligns with a classic safe-haven rush.

Cautious Optimism

So what do we glean from all this data? A cautious optimism seems to be in order. Historically, miner capitulation has acted like a contrarian signal—when the weaker miners hit the exits, the difficulty levels adjust, and those left standing might face a little less selling pressure. This can set the stage for price stabilization and perhaps even gains as the months roll on. Fingers crossed!

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView